Fate Reforged Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Fate Reforged Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The English Fate Reforged display contains 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 game cards). Manufacturer packaging prints approximate premium odds of 1:67 cards, represented by one foil replacing a common in 15/67 packs. Every pack has three nonfoil uncommons, one nonfoil rare/mythic and one land position. Manufacturer packaging specifies premium cards at approximately 1:67 cards, but the complete Fate Reforged foil eligibility and internal allocation have not been independently resolved. The foil position has unknown value, not zero; the displayed priced subtotal omits it. Full-product EV and P/E are unavailable. Retained allocation assumptions: nonfoil rare/mythic uses a 7:1 aggregate split and uniform identities within each rarity; the dedicated land position uses the existing approximate 80:7 split between ten FRF common dual lands and five KTK fetch lands. These weights and independent draws are assumptions, not published sheet odds or box guarantees. The publisher confirms English land slots typically contain those nonbasic lands rather than basic lands. Contemporary Judge Program guidance confirms foil FRF basic lands exist; it does not supply a complete foil sheet or allocation. Construct and draw all 540 game-card positions before applying Sift or user filters. Unknown foil positions remain physically occupied; filters never reroll or backfill. Tokens, advertising inserts and separately distributed promos are outside game-card EV.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box Priced Subtotals

Priced-subtotal summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates; unresolved foil value is omitted.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack priced subtotal (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box priced subtotal (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross priced subtotal per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase Priced Subtotal

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross priced subtotal$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Fate Reforged Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator draws all physical positions before included-pool controls or Sift. Full-product EV is unavailable while foil eligibility and allocation remain unresolved.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Fate Reforged Draft Booster contains 15 game-card positions; a box contains 36 packs and 540 positions. A foil replaces one common in the modeled 15/67 premium packs.

Commons9 or 10 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 655/67 expected per pack after foil replacement.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 15 modeled card outcomes.Land slot: 1 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 45 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.
Foil replacement0 or 1 card / pack
15/67 expected per pack. Complete foil pool and allocation remain unresolved; this position has unknown value.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Fate Reforged Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 181 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 70 Common, 60 Uncommon, 40 Rare, 10 Mythic Rare, 1 Unknown. Its largest slot groups are 60 old common, 60 old uncommon, 35 old rare, 10 old frf land common, 10 old mythic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Unresolved Fate Reforged foil position (Unresolved) #unresolved (8.06 expected per draft booster box), Abzan Advantage #2 (5.87 expected per draft booster box), Abzan Runemark #3 (5.87 expected per draft booster box), Abzan Skycaptain #4 (5.87 expected per draft booster box), Ainok Guide #121 (5.87 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abzan Beastmaster #119, Alesha, Who Smiles at Death #90, Alesha's Vanguard #60, Bloodfell Caves #165, Bloodstained Mire #230, Brutal Hordechief #64, Ugin, the Spirit Dragon #1, Arashin Cleric #5. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 180 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Polluted Delta #239 ($11.17), Wooded Foothills #249 ($9.83), Bloodstained Mire #230 ($9.58), Flooded Strand #233 ($8.34), Windswept Heath #248 ($6.88). Together those five rows account for 33.7% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00