Fallen Empires Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Fallen Empires Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

6 common-sheet slots plus 2 noncommon-sheet slots per pack. Saved MTGJSON marginal weights preserve 121 C1 common art rows and the twenty-five U3, five U2, and thirty-six U1 noncommon rows. These weights are applied before Sift; exact print runs and within-box ordering are not inferred.
60 packs / box8 game cards / pack480 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 60 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Fallen Empires Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
60 packs / box
Cards
8 game cards / pack
Modeled total
480 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Fallen Empires Draft Booster is modeled with 8 game-card slots.

Uncommon sheet slots2 cards / pack
Pool: 66 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 2 expected / pack.
Common sheet slots6 cards / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 6 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Fallen Empires Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 480 card positions across 187 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 17, 2026 contains 121 Common, 36 Rare, 30 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 121 old common, 66 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Armor Thrull (2.98 expected per draft booster box), Armor Thrull (2.98 expected per draft booster box), Armor Thrull (2.98 expected per draft booster box), Armor Thrull (2.98 expected per draft booster box), Basal Thrull (2.98 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aeolipile, Brassclaw Orcs, Balm of Restoration, Bottomless Vault, Breeding Pit, Combat Medic, Conch Horn, Deep Spawn. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 187 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from High Tide ($9.31), Rainbow Vale ($8.20), Dwarven Ruins ($5.79), Svyelunite Temple ($4.56), Hand of Justice ($4.51). Together those five rows account for 18.0% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCatalog keyRarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00