Eventide Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Eventide Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Each pack has eleven commons, three uncommons and one rare before foil replacement. Original Eventide packaging prints approximate premium odds of 1:70 cards, modeled as one foil replacing a common in 3/14 of packs. The foil rarity allocation is a disclosed community assumption: 60% common, 25% uncommon and 15% rare, uniform within each rarity. Exact historical sheet ordering and box guarantees are not asserted.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Eventide Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The model includes ordinary foil replacement at the printed approximate frequency and draws all 540 game cards before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Eventide Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10 or 11 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 151/14 expected / pack (10.785714); one common is replaced when a foil occurs.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare1 card / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 1 expected / pack.
Premium foil replacement0 or 1 card / pack
Pool: all 180 ordinary Eventide printings in foil.3/14 expected / pack, replacing one common. Printed approximate 1:70 cards; conditional rarity weights are assumed.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Eventide Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 360 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 120 Common, 120 Rare, 120 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 60 old common, 60 old common foil, 60 old rare, 60 old rare foil, 60 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aerie Ouphes #65 (6.47 expected per draft booster box), Antler Skulkin #167 (6.47 expected per draft booster box), Ballynock Trapper #2 (6.47 expected per draft booster box), Banishing Knack #17 (6.47 expected per draft booster box), Battlegate Mimic #133 (6.47 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Altar Golem #166, Archon of Justice #1, Batwing Brume #81, Beckon Apparition #82, Belligerent Hatchling #134, Cenn's Enlistment #3, Endless Horizons #4, Endure #5. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 360 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Crumbling Ashes #35 ($53.42), Banishing Knack #17 ($27.96), Quillspike #126 ($18.83), Ashling, the Extinguisher #33 ($18.26), Ward of Bones #174 ($17.06). Together those five rows account for 30.2% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00