Eldritch Moon Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore a conditional Eldritch Moon priced subtotal. Full-product EV remains unavailable because land/checklist contents and part of the foil pool are unresolved. Full-product P/E and financial metrics are unavailable.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The retained scenario draws 36 packs of fifteen positions: nine ordinary commons, three ordinary uncommons, one ordinary rare/mythic, one common/uncommon double-faced or meld card, and one unknown land/checklist position. An additional rare/mythic double-faced or meld card replaces one common in the retained 1/8 branch; a premium also replaces one common. The branches are now drawn jointly so all packs keep fifteen positions. All 389 original quoted outcome weights are preserved. The prior 1:56 parameter was applied only across ordinary slots, yielding 103/448 expected foils per pack, not a verified 15/56 full-pack rate. This conditional aggregate is retained without claiming publisher support. The 1/8 additional DFC/meld branch, 10:3 common/uncommon split, 7:1 rare/mythic split, uniform within-rarity allocation, and independent branches/packs are retained assumptions. The missing DFC/meld foils and land mix must be resolved before any complete-product comparison.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Eldritch Moon Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The conditional model resolves all 540 positions before included-pool controls or Sift. Complete position counts do not verify missing foil and land coverage.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each conditional pack has fifteen positions; the 36-pack box has 540 positions, including 36 unresolved land/checklist positions.

Each conditional pack has three ordinary uncommons, one ordinary rare/mythic, one common/uncommon double-faced or meld card and one unresolved land/checklist position. Start with nine ordinary commons; an additional rare/mythic DFC/meld card and a premium each replace one common when their retained scenario branches occur. This gives seven to nine commons, fourteen game-card positions and one unresolved position, always fifteen positions total.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Eldritch Moon Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 390 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 144 Common, 130 Uncommon, 89 Rare, 26 Mythic Rare, 1 Unknown. Its largest slot groups are 70 old common, 70 old common foil, 60 old uncommon, 60 old uncommon foil, 42 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Unresolved land / checklist position (Unresolved printing) #zero-ev-slot (36.0 expected per draft booster box), Graf Rats #91 (6.92 expected per draft booster box), Midnight Scavengers #96 (6.92 expected per draft booster box), Ulvenwald Captive #175 (6.92 expected per draft booster box), Vildin-Pack Outcast #148 (6.92 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abandon Reason #115, Abundant Maw #1, Alchemist's Greeting #116, Assembled Alphas #117, Backwoods Survivalists #150, Bedlam Reveler #118, Bruna, the Fading Light #15, Conduit of Storms #124, Decimator of the Provinces #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 389 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Sigarda's Aid #41 ($13.27), Emrakul, the Promised End #6 ($8.00), Gisela, the Broken Blade #28 ($6.31), Bruna, the Fading Light #15 ($3.04), Geier Reach Sanitarium #203 ($2.66). Together those five rows account for 26.2% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/emn/models/draft-box.json. The historical model uses configured priced slot branches where source rows and odds are represented, and applies Sift/filtering only after modeled contents are drawn; the direction of unmodeled effects is not assumed.

Calculator notes

Wizards release notes identify 205 cards and the three meld pairs. The official gallery identifies the double-faced and meld cards. These sources do not establish the premium aggregate or checklist/basic-land distribution used by this conditional scenario.

Model: the original priced marginals remain unchanged while joint replacement draws preserve fifteen positions; the incomplete foil and land/checklist scope remains unresolved; complete contents are drawn before controls or Sift score them.
Simulation: Low, Mid, and High come from the same recalculated result set.
Pricing: existing generated price snapshots, fee handling, and marketplace sealed-price behavior are preserved.
Presentation: desktop rows become searchable result cards below 800px without changing the underlying EV rows.