Throne of Eldraine Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore a conditional Throne of Eldraine Draft box estimate. Eligible showcase and borderless outcomes remain unresolved, so the displayed normal-frame scenario is not a full-product EV; full-product P/E and financial metrics are unavailable.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The sealed box contains 36 fifteen-card packs. The corrected conditional scenario draws ten commons, three uncommons, one rare/mythic and one basic land; in one third of packs a foil replaces one common. The publisher 1:45-card premium rate is retained as one third of fifteen-card packs. All 538 original normal-frame identity/finish outcomes remain; extended-art cards, ancillary cards, nonfoil common showcase cards and separately distributed Buy-a-Box promotions are not inferred into this Draft product. The retained premium allocation is conditional: common 10/15, uncommon 3/15, rare/mythic 1/15 and basic land 1/15 within the premium bucket; rare/mythic uses 7:1, with uniform printing weights in each rarity. These are modeling assumptions, not publisher sheet odds. Independent packs, selection with replacement, and at most one premium per pack are also assumptions. The missing special-treatment allocation must be resolved before this becomes a full-product valuation.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Throne of Eldraine Draft Booster Content Snapshot

This conditional normal-frame model resolves all 540 positions before included-pool controls or Sift. Eligible special treatments remain unresolved.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
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Pack Structure

Each Throne of Eldraine Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Ten commons (nine when a foil appears), three uncommons, one rare/mythic and one basic land. A foil replaces one common in one third of this conditional scenario's packs. All 36 packs contain fifteen positions before filters.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Throne of Eldraine Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 538 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Ardenvale Paladin #4 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Ardenvale Tactician #5 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Bake into a Pie #76 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Barge In #112 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Barrow Witches #77 (3.45 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Acclaimed Contender #1, All That Glitters #2, Animating Faerie #38, Ayara, First of Locthwain #75, Bartered Cow #6, Beloved Princess #7, Brazen Borrower #39, Embercleave #120, Archon of Absolution #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 538 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from The Great Henge #161 ($18.16), Mystic Sanctuary #247 ($5.72), Ayara, First of Locthwain #75 ($4.99), Castle Garenbrig #240 ($4.79), Cauldron Familiar #81 ($3.63). Together those five rows account for 20.9% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00