Dragons of Tarkir Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Dragons of Tarkir Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The box prints approximate premium odds of 1:67 cards. One foil replaces a common in 15/67 packs. Internal foil rarity weights are retained assumptions; each completed display contains 540 game cards before Sift and filters.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Dragons of Tarkir Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The reviewed model draws 36 complete fifteen-card packs before Sift and included-pool filters score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each of the 36 boosters has 15 game-card slots; the display contains 540 game cards.

Commons
Ten in ordinary packs; nine when a foil replaces one common. Expected 655/67 per pack.Pool: 101 exact printings.
Uncommons
Three nonfoil cards per pack.Pool: 80 exact printings.
Rare / Mythic
One nonfoil card per pack; assumed aggregate rare/mythic split 7:1.Pool: 68 exact printings.
Basic land
One nonfoil basic land per pack.Pool: 15 exact printings.
Traditional foil
One foil in 15/67 packs replaces a common. Internal rarity allocation is an explicit assumption.Pool: 264 exact printings.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Dragons of Tarkir Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 528 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 30 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aerie Bowmasters #170 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Ainok Artillerist #171 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Ancestral Statue #234 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Ancient Carp #44 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Anticipate #45 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Acid-Spewer Dragon #86, Ainok Survivalist #172, Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit #2, Arashin Foremost #3, Artful Maneuver #4, Atarka Beastbreaker #174, Clone Legion #48, Deathmist Raptor #180, Scion of Ugin #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 528 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Impact Tremors #140 ($9.72), Sarkhan Unbroken #230 ($5.62), Sidisi, Undead Vizier #120 ($4.95), Sarkhan's Triumph #154 ($4.52), Dragonlord Kolaghan #218 ($3.20). Together those five rows account for 24.0% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00