Dominaria Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Dominaria Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Printed premium odds are approximately 1:67 cards, modeled as one foil replacing a common in 15/67 packs. Foil identities are allocated uniformly across the 269 eligible printings as an explicit assumption. The existing legendary and ordinary rarity weights are retained; full fifteen-card packs are drawn before Sift or filters.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Dominaria Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The reviewed model draws 36 complete fifteen-card packs, including ordinary foils and one guaranteed nonfoil legendary creature per pack. Sift and filters score completed draws.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each of the 36 boosters contains 15 game cards; the display contains 540 game cards.

Commons

Ten in ordinary packs; nine when a foil replaces one common. Expected 655/67 per pack.Pool: 101 exact printings.

Uncommons

Three nonfoil uncommons total, including the legendary creature when that legend is uncommon. The ordinary nonlegendary sub-pool has 60 printings.Pool: 80 exact printings.

Rare / Mythic

One nonfoil rare/mythic total, including the legendary creature when that legend is rare or mythic. The ordinary nonlegendary sub-pool has 46 printings.Pool: 68 exact printings.

Basic land

One nonfoil basic land per pack.Pool: 20 exact printings.

Legendary creature

Exactly one nonfoil legendary creature within the uncommon or rare/mythic counts above. Retained uniform allocation across 42 identities; not an additional sixteenth card.Pool: 42 exact printings.

Traditional foil

One foil in 15/67 packs replaces a common. Uniform allocation across 269 foil identities is an explicit assumption.Pool: 269 exact printings.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Dominaria Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 538 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 24, 2026 contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 60 old uncommon, 60 old uncommon foil, 42 old legendary creature. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Academy Drake #40 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Academy Journeymage #41 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Adamant Will #2 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Adventurous Impulse #153 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Aesthir Glider #209 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Adeliz, the Cinder Wind #190, Amaranthine Wall #210, Ancient Animus #154, Arbor Armament #155, Arvad the Cursed #191, Benalish Marshal #6, Blackblade Reforged #211, Board the Weatherlight #8, Karn, Scion of Urza #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 538 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Mox Amber #224 ($23.80), Rat Colony #101 ($19.65), Mox Amber #224 ($5.38), Cabal Stronghold #238 ($4.68), Marwyn, the Nurturer #172 ($4.05). Together those five rows account for 29.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/dom/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.