Dark Ascension Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore a conditional Dark Ascension box estimate using generated TCGplayer prices. Full-product EV remains unverified until the checklist/basic-land substitution is resolved; full-product P/E and financial metrics are unavailable.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Manufacturer Dark Ascension display packaging states 36 fifteen-card packs and approximate premium odds of 1:67 cards. The model interprets this as 15/67 packs with one foil replacing one ordinary common, consistent with the publisher common-replacement rule. One nonfoil double-faced position is drawn in every pack, rather than rounding its alternative rarity branches independently. Foil double-faced cards may also appear in the premium position. Allocation assumptions: the 158 DKA foil printings share the premium bucket uniformly; ISD basic-land foils are not inferred from their availability in the price bundle. Ordinary rare/mythic retains 7:1 and uniform printing weights. The original DFC scenario retains 7/8 common-or-uncommon versus 1/8 rare-or-mythic, with 10:3 common/uncommon and 7:1 rare/mythic allocation. Those internal weights, independent packs, at most one premium, and the retained ISD250-264 land allocation are assumptions, not verified factory sheet collation. The secondary 9/40 foil-frequency estimate is not used instead of the printed rate.
36 packs / box15 card slots / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Dark Ascension Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Modeled total
15 card slots / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each modeled booster has 15 positions; 36 boosters make one 540-position conditional box scenario.

Nine ordinary commons (eight when a foil appears), three uncommons, one ordinary rare/mythic, one nonfoil double-faced card and one assumed basic land. A premium replaces an ordinary common in 15/67 packs.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Dark Ascension Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 331 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 128 Common, 88 Uncommon, 76 Rare, 24 Mythic Rare, 15 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 60 old common, 60 old common foil, 40 old uncommon, 40 old uncommon foil, 35 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Chosen of Markov #55 (6.06 expected per draft booster box), Hinterland Hermit #94 (6.06 expected per draft booster box), Loyal Cathar #13 (6.06 expected per draft booster box), Scorned Villager #125 (6.06 expected per draft booster box), Artful Dodge #27 (5.27 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Afflicted Deserter #81, Alpha Brawl #82, Altar of the Lost #144, Archangel's Light #1, Avacyn's Collar #145, Bar the Door #2, Beguiler of Wills #28, Black Cat #54, Break of Day #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 316 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Mikaeus, the Unhallowed #70 ($11.16), Thought Scour #52 ($4.32), Havengul Lich #139 ($3.13), Geralf's Messenger #63 ($2.93), Increasing Ambition #69 ($2.46). Together those five rows account for 15.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00