Conspiracy Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore a conditional nonfoil-only scenario for one Conspiracy Booster Box. Full-product EV is unavailable until ordinary foil outcomes are supported.

Model assumptions & evidence

Full-product EV is unavailable: ordinary foil outcomes are omitted, and the Conspiracy-specific foil frequency and replacement allocation remain unresolved. This scenario draws all configured nonfoil positions first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering.

Publisher references: Developing Conspiracy confirms the dedicated draft-influencing slot; the official card gallery provides the named card pool. Uniform selection, 7:1 ordinary rare/mythic and 80:24:7 draft-slot rarity allocation remain modeling assumptions.

10 Normal nonfoil common slots, 3 Normal nonfoil uncommon slots, and 1 Normal nonfoil rare-or-mythic slot per pack with an assumed 7:1 rare-to-mythic split. Each slot is modeled uniformly within the current TCGCSV rarity pool; exact product print-sheet ordering and collation are not inferred. The model also includes 1 Normal nonfoil Conspiracy/draft-matters slot per pack, selected from configured collector numbers by rarity weights (common=80, uncommon=24, rare=7) before Sift/filtering. Premium foil replacement outcomes are not modeled because exact set-specific collation is not configured. The numeric EV display is a conditional nonfoil-only scenario, not full-product EV. Full-product sealed P/E is unavailable; the omitted net effect is unquantified.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Conspiracy Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Conspiracy Draft Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 45 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.
Conspiracy/draft-matters slot1 card / pack
Pool: 25 modeled card outcomes.Conspiracy/draft-matters slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Conspiracy Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 210 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 89 Common, 68 Uncommon, 43 Rare, 10 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 80 old common, 60 old uncommon, 35 old rare, 10 old mythic, 9 old conspiracy draft common. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aether Tradewinds #89 (4.50 expected per draft booster box), Ajani's Sunstriker #66 (4.50 expected per draft booster box), Altar's Reap #112 (4.50 expected per draft booster box), Apex Hawks #67 (4.50 expected per draft booster box), Assassinate #113 (4.50 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Academy Elite #20, Advantageous Proclamation #1, Aether Searcher #53, Air Servant #90, Brago's Favor #3, Brago's Representative #14, Coercive Portal #56, Backup Plan #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 210 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Treasonous Ogre #36 ($33.57), Exploration #164 ($29.72), Altar of Dementia #196 ($18.88), Reflecting Pool #210 ($15.93), Vedalken Orrery #206 ($15.54). Together those five rows account for 34.9% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00