Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore a conditional value estimate for Conspiracy: Take the Crown Booster Box using generated TCGplayer price snapshots. Full-product EV is not verified: foil versions of the dedicated conspiracy/draft-matters cards are omitted pending product-specific placement and allocation evidence. Unknown allocation is not zero.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Draw 36 complete 15-card packs before Sift or filters. The retained conditional scenario has ten common, three uncommon, one rare/mythic and one conspiracy/draft-matters position per pack. Uniform identities, a 7:1 ordinary rare/mythic split, 80:24:7:1 special-slot rarity weights and independent 1/56 same-rarity foil replacement on the fourteen ordinary positions are modeling assumptions. Special-slot foil allocation and the inherited foil basis still need product-specific verification; current values and ranges are conditional estimates. Alternate-art foil Kaya #222 uses its exact foil-only identity. No basic lands, token inserts or externally distributed promos are added.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons9.8214 expected / pack

Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 9.8214 expected / pack.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 120 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.9464 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.0536 expected / pack (5.36% expected per pack).

Rare / Mythic0.9821 expected / pack

Pool: 54 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 0.9821 expected / pack (98.21% expected per pack).

Conspiracy/draft-matters slot1 card / pack

Pool: 27 modeled card outcomes.Conspiracy/draft-matters slot: 1 expected / pack.

Foil replacement common slots0.1786 expected / pack

Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.1786 expected / pack (17.86% expected per pack).

Foil replacement rare/mythic slot0.0179 expected / pack

Pool: 54 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare/mythic slot: 0.0179 expected / pack (1.79% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Conspiracy: Take the Crown Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 415 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 7, 2026 contains 170 Common, 127 Uncommon, 92 Rare, 26 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 80 old common, 80 old common foil, 60 old uncommon, 60 old uncommon foil, 42 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Absorb Vis #126 (4.42 expected per draft booster box), Altar's Reap #127 (4.42 expected per draft booster box), Ballot Broker #13 (4.42 expected per draft booster box), Blood-Toll Harpy #129 (4.42 expected per draft booster box), Bonds of Quicksilver #102 (4.42 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Adriana, Captain of the Guard #73, Adriana's Valor #1, Affa Guard Hound #81, Akroan Hoplite #197, Animus of Predation #60, Arcane Savant #27, Avatar of Woe #128, Berserk #175, Assemble the Rank and Vile #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 415 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Burgeoning #178 ($26.41), Horn of Greed #211 ($13.06), Ghostly Prison #86 ($9.51), Birds of Paradise #176 ($9.44), Marchesa's Decree #44 ($7.62). Together those five rows account for 26.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/cn2/models/draft-box.json. The historical model uses configured priced slot branches where source rows and odds are represented, and applies Sift/filtering only after modeled contents are drawn; the direction of unmodeled effects is not assumed.