Champions of Kamigawa Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Champions of Kamigawa Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The Champions of Kamigawa display contains 36 packs of 15 cards, for 540 physical game cards. The 307 printing identities comprise 110 commons, 89 uncommon printings, 88 rares and 20 basics. Brothers Yamazaki has two artwork printings (160a and 160b); the ten flip cards each occupy one physical position. Nonfoil basics are excluded from boosters; foil basics remain in the common premium pool. No token inserts or prerelease promos are added. Manufacturer display packaging prints approximate premium-card odds of 1:70 cards. This corrects the previous 1:100 setting while retaining the historical same-rarity replacement scenario: eleven common, three uncommon and one rare position are drawn per pack. Allocation assumptions: each position independently has a 1/70 premium chance in its own rarity. Ordinary commons are uniform across 110 printings; common foils are uniform across those commons plus 20 basic lands. Uncommons are uniform across 89 printing identities, including each Brothers Yamazaki artwork at the same weight as another uncommon printing; rares are uniform across 88 identities. Factory sheet multiplicities, artwork frequency, color balance and covariance are not asserted. Draws use replacement within sheets; a box is not promised a particular foil count. Draw all 540 physical game cards before Sift or user filters, with no rerolls or backfilling. Low, Mid and High come from the same recalculated simulation.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

The Champions of Kamigawa display contains 36 packs of 15 cards, for 540 physical game cards.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Champions of Kamigawa Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Champions of Kamigawa Draft Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10.89 expected / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10.89 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 178 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.97 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.03 expected / pack (3% expected per pack).
Rare / Mythic0.99 expected / pack
Pool: 88 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 0.99 expected / pack (99% expected per pack).
Foil replacement common slots0.11 expected / pack
Pool: 130 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.11 expected / pack (11% expected per pack).
Foil replacement rare slot0.01 expected / pack
Pool: 88 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare slot: 0.01 expected / pack (1% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Champions of Kamigawa Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 594 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 220 Common, 178 Uncommon, 176 Rare, 20 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 130 old common foil, 110 old common, 89 old uncommon, 89 old uncommon foil, 88 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Akki Avalanchers #151 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Akki Rockspeaker #154 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Ashen-Skin Zubera #101 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Battle-Mad Ronin #156 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Befoul #102 (3.55 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Akki Coalflinger #152, Akki Lavarunner // Tok-Tok, Volcano Born #153, Akki Underminer #155, Azami, Lady of Scrolls #52, Blessed Breath #1, Brutal Deceiver #161, Bushi Tenderfoot // Kenzo the Hardhearted #2, Cage of Hands #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 594 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Sensei's Divining Top #268 ($55.63), Minamo, School at Water's Edge #279 ($24.62), Desperate Ritual #163 ($23.60), Shizo, Death's Storehouse #283 ($18.74), Marrow-Gnawer #124 ($12.33). Together those five rows account for 28.7% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00