The Brothers' War Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of The Brothers' War Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model. Conditional estimate only: Wizards' article, pack diagram and product guide disagree about the common/land and foil-replacement positions. Full-product EV and profit comparisons remain unavailable pending clarification; this page retains the original common-replacement scenario.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

One display draws 36 complete 15-card packs. The one-in-three traditional foil event now selects uniformly from 421 eligible exact printings; this allocation is an assumption, not published foil rarity odds. The conditional model retains a common replacement. The publisher article and its Draft diagram conflict on the replaced position. The WPN product guide also says a land replaces a common in 25% of packs, while the article describes a guaranteed basic/mech-land slot. The original 75% regular-basic / 25% mech-land assumption is retained pending clarification. Sift and bucket filters apply after every complete draw without rerolls.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

The Brothers' War Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each The Brothers' War Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Land1 card / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Regular basic land: 0.75 expected / pack (75% expected per pack).Full-art mech basic land: 0.25 expected / pack (25% expected per pack).
Nonfoil borderless rare or mythic rare replacement0.03 expected / pack
Pool: 8 modeled card outcomes.Nonfoil borderless rare or mythic rare replacement: 0.03 expected / pack (3% expected per pack).
Commons after foil replacement8.6667 expected / pack
Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Commons after foil replacement: 8.6667 expected / pack.
3 nonfoil uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.3 nonfoil uncommons: 3 expected / pack.
Regular rare or mythic rare0.97 expected / pack
Pool: 86 modeled card outcomes.Regular rare or mythic rare: 0.97 expected / pack (97% expected per pack).
Retro artifact rare0.225 expected / pack
Pool: 30 modeled card outcomes.Retro artifact rare: 0.225 expected / pack (22.5% expected per pack).
Retro artifact mythic rare0.0583 expected / pack
Pool: 15 modeled card outcomes.Retro artifact mythic rare: 0.0583 expected / pack (5.83% expected per pack).
Retro artifact uncommon0.55 expected / pack
Pool: 18 modeled card outcomes.Retro artifact uncommon: 0.55 expected / pack (55% expected per pack).
Schematic artifact rare0.045 expected / pack
Pool: 30 modeled card outcomes.Schematic artifact rare: 0.045 expected / pack (4.5% expected per pack).
Schematic artifact mythic rare0.0117 expected / pack
Pool: 15 modeled card outcomes.Schematic artifact mythic rare: 0.0117 expected / pack (1.17% expected per pack).
Schematic artifact uncommon0.11 expected / pack
Pool: 18 modeled card outcomes.Schematic artifact uncommon: 0.11 expected / pack (11% expected per pack).
Traditional foil replacement0.3333 expected / pack
Pool: 421 eligible foil printings; uniform allocation assumed.Traditional foil replacement: 0.3333 expected / pack (33.33% expected per pack).

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives The Brothers' War Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 842 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 4, 2026 contains 258 Rare, 232 Uncommon, 202 Common, 110 Mythic Rare, 40 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 421 traditional foil, 101 common, 86 rare mythic, 80 uncommon, 30 retro artifact rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aeronaut Cavalry #1 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Aeronaut's Wings #231 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Air Marshal #43 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Airlift Chaplain #2 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Ambush Paratrooper #3 (3.09 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Adaptive Automaton (Schematic) #64, Adaptive Automaton #1, Aetherflux Reservoir (Schematic) #65, Aetherflux Reservoir #2, Alloy Animist #166, Altar of Dementia (Schematic) #66, Arcane Proxy #75, Argothian Opportunist #167, Teferi, Temporal Pilgrim (Borderless) #293. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 842 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Mox Amber #35 ($11.21), Portal to Phyrexia #240 ($8.47), Diabolic Intent #89 ($8.34), Mox Amber (Schematic) #98 ($6.71), Loran's Escape #14 ($6.39). Together those five rows account for 15.2% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00