Betrayers of Kamigawa Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Betrayers of Kamigawa Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model. Conditional estimate: the retained 1/100 foil-rate scenario is awaiting manufacturer verification. Full-product EV and profitability are unavailable until the conflicting foil-rate evidence is resolved.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

11 Normal nonfoil common slots, 3 Normal nonfoil uncommon slots, and 1 Normal nonfoil rare slot per pack. Each slot is modeled uniformly within the current TCGCSV rarity pool; exact old print-sheet ordering and collation are not inferred. Premium foil replacements are modeled at 1 per 100 card slots; each foil replaces the same-rarity regular card slot before Sift/filtering, so foil branches share the existing slot totals instead of adding cards. The publisher confirms 165 physical card identities; the five flip-card second names are not additional draw outcomes. Full-product EV remains unverified pending a readable manufacturer foil-odds panel: the retained 1/100 scenario conflicts with a contemporary collector transcription reporting 1:70.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Betrayers of Kamigawa Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Betrayers of Kamigawa Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10.89 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10.89 expected / pack.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.97 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.03 expected / pack (3% expected per pack).

Rare / Mythic0.99 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 0.99 expected / pack (99% expected per pack).

Foil replacement rare slot0.01 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare slot: 0.01 expected / pack (1% expected per pack).

Foil replacement common slots0.11 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.11 expected / pack (11% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Betrayers of Kamigawa Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 330 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 17, 2026 contains 110 Common, 110 Rare, 110 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 55 old common, 55 old common foil, 55 old rare, 55 old rare foil, 55 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Akki Blizzard-Herder #91 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Bile Urchin #61 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Blademane Baku #95 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Blessing of Leeches #62 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Call for Blood #63 (7.13 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Akki Raider #92, Ashen Monstrosity #93, Baku Altar #152, Blazing Shoal #96, Child of Thorns #123, Crack the Earth #98, Day of Destiny #1, Empty-Shrine Kannushi #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 330 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Okiba-Gang Shinobi #76 ($18.39), Kami of False Hope #10 ($15.33), Mistblade Shinobi #43 ($14.61), Ninja of the Deep Hours #44 ($12.97), Umezawa's Jitte #163 ($12.78). Together those five rows account for 21.9% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/bok/models/draft-box.json. The old-set model uses uniform rarity-pool slots, does not infer exact historical print-sheet collation, and does not claim a conservative directional bias.

Calculator notes

Model: all 330 original printing expectations are retained, while every simulated display now contains exactly 540 cards. Uniform rarity allocation, same-rarity foil replacement, independent draws and the conditional 1/100 rate remain disclosed assumptions pending verification.
Simulation: Low, Mid, and High come from the same recalculated result set.
Pricing: existing generated price snapshots, fee handling, and marketplace sealed-price behavior are preserved.
Presentation: desktop rows become searchable result cards below 800px without changing the underlying EV rows.
Evidence: publisher product record confirms the 165-card set and 15-card packs. A recovered English wrapper photograph confirms the product identity but its fold obscures the odds panel. Displayed figures are conditional estimates; full-product value and profitability are unavailable until the foil-rate conflict is resolved.