Arabian Nights Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore an incomplete quoted-pool scenario for Arabian Nights Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unavailable: the generated Arabian Nights catalog omits Jihad and Stone-Throwing Devils, including its light/dark variants, and has no supported exact TCGplayer Market quotes for them. These are historical booster outcomes, not chase exclusions. The displayed simulation is an incomplete quoted-pool scenario, not a full-product EV or a priced subtotal of correctly weighted complete contents. The retained scenario draws 60 packs of eight positions, six from the 39 currently generated common printings and two from the 50 currently generated non-common printings. All original quoted printing expectations are preserved pending restoration of missing identities, prices and reviewed sheet weights. It does not reconstruct the historical 121-position sheets. The Mountain remains in the common pool; no other basic lands or foils are added. Uniform selection among current printing rows, independent draws with replacement, and the current light/dark variant allocation are provisional assumptions. Historical sheet frequency codes are not represented. Unknown missing-card probability is not assigned an invented value or new weight, and current quoted outcomes must not be mistaken for a complete eligible pool. Resolve every modeled position before Sift and user filters; rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled. A 480-position scenario draw is not evidence of historical content completeness. Full-product P/E is unavailable until the missing outcomes and quote coverage are resolved.

60 packs / box8 game cards / pack480 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Incomplete Scenario Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Single-box and purchase-average expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Single-box EV distribution (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Purchase-average gross EV / box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Metric basis: Low and High are the selected interval percentiles; Mid is the mean from the same recalculated sample. Single-box EV summarizes individual 60-pack box samples. Purchase-average rows resample the selected purchase and divide by its box count, so the two samples can differ slightly, especially when one box is selected.

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Arabian Nights Draft Booster Content Snapshot

This incomplete quoted-pool scenario retains the existing slot weights and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 60 packs / box
Cards: 8 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 480 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Arabian Nights Draft Booster is modeled with 8 game-card slots.

Commons6 cards / pack

Pool: 39 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 6 expected / pack.

Non-common sheet slots2 cards / pack

Pool: 50 modeled card outcomes.Non-common sheet slots: 2 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Arabian Nights Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 480 card positions across 89 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 39 Common, 31 Rare, 19 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 50 old noncommon sheet, 39 old common. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Army of Allah (9.23 expected per draft booster box), Army of Allah (9.23 expected per draft booster box), Bird Maiden (9.23 expected per draft booster box), Bird Maiden (9.23 expected per draft booster box), Camel (9.23 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abu Ja'far, Cuombajj Witches, Aladdin, Aladdin's Lamp, Aladdin's Ring, Ali Baba, Ali from Cairo, Bazaar of Baghdad. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 89 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Bazaar of Baghdad ($4620.58), Juzam Djinn ($4384.80), Library of Alexandria ($4344.00), Mountain ($2185.75), City of Brass ($1895.98). Together those five rows account for 43.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 480 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/arn/models/draft-box.json. Full-product EV is unavailable: the generated Arabian Nights catalog omits Jihad and Stone-Throwing Devils, including its light/dark variants, and has no supported exact TCGplayer Market quotes for them. These are historical booster outcomes, not chase exclusions. The displayed simulation is an incomplete quoted-pool scenario, not a full-product EV or a priced subtotal of correctly weighted complete contents. The retained scenario draws 60 packs of eight positions, six from the 39 currently generated common printings and two from the 50 currently generated non-common printings. All original quoted printing expectations are preserved pending restoration of missing identities, prices and reviewed sheet weights. It does not reconstruct the historical 121-position sheets. The Mountain remains in the common pool; no other basic lands or foils are added. Uniform selection among current printing rows, independent draws with replacement, and the current light/dark variant allocation are provisional assumptions. Historical sheet frequency codes are not represented. Unknown missing-card probability is not assigned an invented value or new weight, and current quoted outcomes must not be mistaken for a complete eligible pool. Resolve every modeled position before Sift and user filters; rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled. A 480-position scenario draw is not evidence of historical content completeness. Full-product P/E is unavailable until the missing outcomes and quote coverage are resolved.