Shards of Alara Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Shards of Alara Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The Shards of Alara display packaging prints approximate premium-card odds of 1:56 cards. This model includes the previously omitted foil outcomes, interpreting that aggregate as 15/56 of fifteen-card packs containing one foil. The ongoing common-replacement rule was published in Purple Reign (2006) and is corroborated by the ALA pack reconstruction: a foil replaces one common, leaving the rare/mythic, three uncommons and basic land intact. Unpublished allocation assumptions: the foil pool uses the ALA community reconstruction, with 60% across 101 commons plus 20 basics, 25% across 60 uncommons, and 15% across 53 rares at double the weight of 15 mythics. Printings within each rarity are uniform. The ordinary rare/mythic slot retains the published approximate 7:1 aggregate and uniform within-rarity allocation. Independent pack draws, replacement within a sheet, and at most one foil per pack are modeled; historical sheet ordering and box guarantees are not asserted. The secondary reconstruction foil frequency is not used in place of the printed 1:56 rate. Draw all 36 complete fifteen-card packs (540 game cards) before Sift or user filters. Rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled. Tokens and advertising inserts are outside game-card EV. The separate Alara-block all-foil booster product is not modeled here.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Shards of Alara Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator includes the printed premium-card aggregate and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Shards of Alara Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons9 or 10 nonfoil cards / pack

Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.A foil replaces one common in the premium variant; 9.732 nonfoil commons expected per pack.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 1 expected / pack.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.

Premium branch: 15/56 of packs contain one foil from the 249-printing pool, replacing one common. Conditional foil rarity weights are assumed as disclosed below.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Shards of Alara Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 498 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 202 Common, 120 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 60 old uncommon, 60 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Agony Warp #153 (3.47 expected per draft booster box), Akrasan Squire #1 (3.47 expected per draft booster box), Angelsong #4 (3.47 expected per draft booster box), Banewasp Affliction #65 (3.47 expected per draft booster box), Bant Panorama #221 (3.47 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Ad Nauseam #63, Ajani Vengeant #154, Algae Gharial #123, Angel's Herald #2, Archdemon of Unx #64, Blightning #156, Blister Beetle #66, Elspeth, Knight-Errant #9, Angelic Benediction #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 498 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Relic of Progenitus #218 ($25.29), Tezzeret the Seeker #60 ($10.58), Ad Nauseam #63 ($7.82), Etherium Sculptor #42 ($6.28), Deathgreeter #71 ($4.51). Together those five rows account for 23.9% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/ala/models/draft-box.json. The Shards of Alara display packaging prints approximate premium-card odds of 1:56 cards. This model includes the previously omitted foil outcomes, interpreting that aggregate as 15/56 of fifteen-card packs containing one foil. The ongoing common-replacement rule was published in Purple Reign (2006) and is corroborated by the ALA pack reconstruction: a foil replaces one common, leaving the rare/mythic, three uncommons and basic land intact. Unpublished allocation assumptions: the foil pool uses the ALA community reconstruction, with 60% across 101 commons plus 20 basics, 25% across 60 uncommons, and 15% across 53 rares at double the weight of 15 mythics. Printings within each rarity are uniform. The ordinary rare/mythic slot retains the published approximate 7:1 aggregate and uniform within-rarity allocation. Independent pack draws, replacement within a sheet, and at most one foil per pack are modeled; historical sheet ordering and box guarantees are not asserted. The secondary reconstruction foil frequency is not used in place of the printed 1:56 rate. Draw all 36 complete fifteen-card packs (540 game cards) before Sift or user filters. Rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled. Tokens and advertising inserts are outside game-card EV. The separate Alara-block all-foil booster product is not modeled here.