Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

AFR Draft Booster Displays model the published rare/mythic slot with the about-10% rulebook, Dungeon Module, or borderless rare/mythic identity replacement, three uncommons, ten common positions with a one-in-three foil replacement, one basic land, and 36 packs per display. Wizards confirms nonfoil common/uncommon Booster Fun cards can appear in Draft Boosters but does not publish exact treatment rates or slot mapping, so the displayed subtotal retains an explicitly incomplete regular common/uncommon scenario rather than asserting a complete treatment model. Draw all contents first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box Priced Subtotals

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack priced subtotal (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box priced subtotal x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross priced subtotal per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase Priced Subtotals

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross priced subtotal$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.3 uncommons: 3 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic land: 1 expected / pack.
Rulebook, module, or borderless rare or mythic rare replacement0.1 expected / pack
Pool: 36 modeled card outcomes.Rulebook, module, or borderless rare or mythic rare replacement: 0.1 expected / pack (10% expected per pack).
Commons after foil replacement9.6667 expected / pack
Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Commons after foil replacement: 9.6667 expected / pack.
Regular rare or mythic rare0.9 expected / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Regular rare or mythic rare: 0.9 expected / pack (90% expected per pack).
Traditional foil replacement0.3333 expected / pack
Pool: 1 modeled card outcome.Traditional foil replacement: 0.3333 expected / pack (33.33% expected per pack).

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 318 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 18, 2026 contains 101 Common, 83 Rare, 80 Uncommon, 33 Mythic Rare, 20 Basic Land, 1 Unresolved. Its largest slot groups are 101 common, 80 rare mythic, 80 uncommon, 36 booster fun rm, 20 basic land. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Unresolved traditional foil printing (Unresolved printing) #unresolved-foil (12.0 expected per draft booster box), +2 Mace #1 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Air-Cult Elemental #45 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Arborea Pegasus #2 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Arcane Investigator #46 (3.45 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aberrant Mind Sorcerer #44, Acererak the Archlich #87, Adult Gold Dragon (Borderless) #297, Armory Veteran #130, Forest (Basic Land) #278, Grand Master of Flowers (Borderless) #282, Mordenkainen (Borderless) #283, Lolth, Spider Queen (Borderless) #284. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 317 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Unexpected Windfall #164 ($12.47), Old Gnawbone #197 ($9.84), Circle of Dreams Druid #176 ($7.62), Teleportation Circle #39 ($5.17), Tiamat #235 ($4.80). Together those five rows account for 19.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00