Aether Revolt Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Aether Revolt Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

This complete 36-pack display draws 540 game cards before Sift or user filters. The eligible pools are AER1-184 in both finishes, KLD250-264 basic lands in both finishes, and foil Kaladesh Inventions MPS31-54. Planeswalker-deck-only AER185-194, tokens and advertising inserts are excluded. Historical scenario: existing 1/56 ordinary-foil selection per modeled position and 1/144 Invention per pack are retained, not newly verified publisher rates for Aether Revolt. The published Masterpiece article gives roughly 1/144 specifically for Kaladesh and cautions that later rates may differ. Uniform card allocation, 7:1 rare/mythic split, same-rarity ordinary-foil replacement, independent slot draws, and replacing the basic-land position with an Invention are model assumptions. Actual factory replacement positions and joint foil collation remain unverified; a complete draw is not proof of those assumptions. Each scenario pack draws ten common positions, three uncommon positions, one rare/mythic position, and one land/Invention position. All existing card probabilities and price inputs are preserved. Sift and included-pool filters score the completed product without rerolling or backfilling rejected cards.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

This complete 36-pack display draws 540 game cards before Sift or user filters.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Aether Revolt Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Aether Revolt Draft Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons9.8214 expected / pack

Pool: 70 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 9.8214 expected / pack.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 120 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.9464 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.0536 expected / pack (5.36% expected per pack).

Land0.9931 expected / pack

Pool: 30 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 0.9753 expected / pack (97.53% expected per pack).Foil replacement basic land slots: 0.0177 expected / pack (1.77% expected per pack).

Rare / Mythic0.9821 expected / pack

Pool: 54 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 0.9821 expected / pack (98.21% expected per pack).

Foil replacement common slots0.1786 expected / pack

Pool: 70 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.1786 expected / pack (17.86% expected per pack).

Foil replacement rare/mythic slot0.0179 expected / pack

Pool: 54 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare/mythic slot: 0.0179 expected / pack (1.79% expected per pack).

Kaladesh Invention branch0.0069 expected / pack

Pool: 24 modeled card outcomes.Kaladesh Invention branch: 0.0069 expected / pack (0.69% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Aether Revolt Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 422 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 140 Common, 120 Uncommon, 84 Rare, 48 Mythic Rare, 30 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 70 old common, 70 old common foil, 60 old uncommon, 60 old uncommon foil, 42 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aegis Automaton #141 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Aether Chaser #76 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Aether Herder #102 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Aether Inspector #3 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Aether Poisoner #51 (5.05 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aerial Modification #1, Aeronaut Admiral #2, Aether Swooper #26, Aethergeode Miner #4, Aethersphere Harvester #142, Aetherstream Leopard #103, Aetherwind Basker #104, Ajani Unyielding #127, Airdrop Aeronauts #5. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 422 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Heroic Intervention #109 ($11.90), Walking Ballista #181 ($9.38), Whir of Invention #49 ($4.36), Felidar Guardian #19 ($4.10), Rishkar's Expertise #123 ($3.08). Together those five rows account for 20.5% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/aer/models/draft-box.json. This complete 36-pack display draws 540 game cards before Sift or user filters. The eligible pools are AER1-184 in both finishes, KLD250-264 basic lands in both finishes, and foil Kaladesh Inventions MPS31-54. Planeswalker-deck-only AER185-194, tokens and advertising inserts are excluded. Historical scenario: existing 1/56 ordinary-foil selection per modeled position and 1/144 Invention per pack are retained, not newly verified publisher rates for Aether Revolt. The published Masterpiece article gives roughly 1/144 specifically for Kaladesh and cautions that later rates may differ. Uniform card allocation, 7:1 rare/mythic split, same-rarity ordinary-foil replacement, independent slot draws, and replacing the basic-land position with an Invention are model assumptions. Actual factory replacement positions and joint foil collation remain unverified; a complete draw is not proof of those assumptions. Each scenario pack draws ten common positions, three uncommon positions, one rare/mythic position, and one land/Invention position. All existing card probabilities and price inputs are preserved. Sift and included-pool filters score the completed product without rerolling or backfilling rejected cards.