8th Edition Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of 8th Edition Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Each display contains 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 playable cards) plus one oversized, non-playable box-topper accessory. Only the 540 game cards are valued; the accessory is tracked separately and excluded from EV, not asserted to have zero resale value. Core Game cards S1-S7 are not booster contents. The English Eighth Edition wrapper prints a premium-card ratio of 1:70 cards. The existing MTGJSON sheet manifest retains that aggregate rate. Its sixteen pack variants use ten common, three uncommon, one rare and one basic-land position with foil replacement in the same rarity. Uniform printing weights, rarity allocation and joint foil events are community model assumptions, not publisher-confirmed factory collation. Draw 36 complete fifteen-card packs and track the one excluded oversized accessory before applying Sift or user filters. Rejected game cards are never rerolled or replaced. All existing game-card identities, probabilities and prices are unchanged.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 playable cards + 1 excluded oversized accessory / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 playable cards + 1 excluded oversized accessory / boxBackend Draft Booster model

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

8th Edition Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 playable cards + 1 excluded oversized accessory / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each 8th Edition Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Foil uncommon sheet slots0.0429 expected / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon sheet slots: 0.0429 expected / pack (4.29% expected per pack).

Uncommon sheet slots2.9571 expected / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 2.9571 expected / pack.

Foil common sheet slots0.1429 expected / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Foil common sheet slots: 0.1429 expected / pack (14.29% expected per pack).

Common sheet slots9.8571 expected / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 9.8571 expected / pack.

Foil rare sheet slots0.0143 expected / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Foil rare sheet slots: 0.0143 expected / pack (1.43% expected per pack).

Rare sheet slots0.9857 expected / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Rare sheet slots: 0.9857 expected / pack (98.57% expected per pack).

Foil basic sheet slots0.0143 expected / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Foil basic sheet slots: 0.0143 expected / pack (1.43% expected per pack).

Basic sheet slots0.9857 expected / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic sheet slots: 0.9857 expected / pack (98.57% expected per pack).

Box Topper1 / display

Pool: 1 modeled card outcome.Oversized box topper: 0.0278 expected / pack (2.78% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives 8th Edition Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 541 card positions across 701 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 220 Common, 220 Rare, 220 Uncommon, 40 Basic Land, 1 Zero EV. Its largest slot groups are 110 old common, 110 old foil common, 110 old foil rare, 110 old foil uncommon, 110 old rare. 1 modeled row is explicitly disclosed as EV-excluded and omitted from the value contribution.

Largest modeled weights. Anaba Shaman #175 (3.23 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Page #2 (3.23 expected per draft booster box), Aven Cloudchaser #5 (3.23 expected per draft booster box), Aven Fisher #61 (3.23 expected per draft booster box), Aven Flock #6 (3.23 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abyssal Specter #117, Air Elemental #59, Aladdin's Ring #291, Archivist #60, Balduvian Barbarians #176, Bog Imp #119, Forest (347), Forest (348), Angel of Mercy #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 700 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Grave Pact #137 ($13.43), City of Brass #322 ($6.39), Coat of Arms #294 ($5.48), Teferi's Puzzle Box #316 ($5.01), Merchant Scroll #91 ($4.79). Together those five rows account for 16.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 playable cards + 1 excluded oversized accessory / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/8ed/models/draft-box.json. Each display contains 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 playable cards) plus one oversized, non-playable box-topper accessory. Only the 540 game cards are valued; the accessory is tracked separately and excluded from EV, not asserted to have zero resale value. Core Game cards S1-S7 are not booster contents. The English Eighth Edition wrapper prints a premium-card ratio of 1:70 cards. The existing MTGJSON sheet manifest retains that aggregate rate. Its sixteen pack variants use ten common, three uncommon, one rare and one basic-land position with foil replacement in the same rarity. Uniform printing weights, rarity allocation and joint foil events are community model assumptions, not publisher-confirmed factory collation. Draw 36 complete fifteen-card packs and track the one excluded oversized accessory before applying Sift or user filters. Rejected game cards are never rerolled or replaced. All existing game-card identities, probabilities and prices are unchanged.