Fifth Edition Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Fifth Edition Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

11 Normal nonfoil common slots, 3 Normal nonfoil uncommon slots, and 1 Normal nonfoil rare slot per pack. Each slot is modeled uniformly within the current TCGCSV rarity pool; exact old print-sheet ordering and collation are not inferred. Basic-land rows are omitted from booster card pools; Crusade and Pradesh Gypsies are retained as source-only outcomes with unknown prices so common and rare rows are not overweighted.

Full EV is unavailable. Crusade and Pradesh Gypsies have no supported exact Fifth Edition TCGplayer Market quote. They remain physical outcomes with unknown value; their probabilities are not redistributed. Displayed values are the priced subtotal under the stated uniform rarity-pool assumptions.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box Priced Subtotals

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack subtotal (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Full box subtotal (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross subtotal per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Subtotal after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Fifth Edition Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Fifth Edition Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons11 cards / pack
Pool: 165 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 11 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 132 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 132 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Fifth Edition Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 429 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 165 Common, 132 Rare, 132 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 165 old common, 132 old rare, 132 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Alabaster Potion (2.40 expected per draft booster box), Ambush Party (2.40 expected per draft booster box), Amulet of Kroog (2.40 expected per draft booster box), Armor of Faith (2.40 expected per draft booster box), Ashnod's Transmogrant (2.40 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abbey Gargoyles, Adarkar Wastes, Aurochs, Crusade #22, Counterspell #77, Time Elemental #129, Birds of Paradise #142, Pradesh Gypsies #317. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 427 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Mana Vault ($26.84), Ashnod's Altar ($12.98), Dark Ritual ($11.47), Necropotence ($10.45), Nature's Lore ($9.94). Together those five rows account for 21.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00