Fifth Dawn Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Fifth Dawn Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The printed English Fifth Dawn wrapper states a premium-card ratio of 1:70 cards. This model applies that aggregate frequency to all 15 positions; the previous 1:100 setting was incorrect. The wrapper does not specify individual card weights, rarity allocation or joint pack collation, which remain explicit assumptions. The modeled display has 36 packs of 15 cards: eleven common positions, three uncommon positions and one rare position. Each rarity contains all 55 numbered Fifth Dawn identities, in normal and traditional foil finishes. The model retains uniform allocation within each rarity and independent 1/70 foil selection for each position; this is a scenario assumption, not a verified reproduction of historical sheets, foil counts, duplicate prevention or pack ordering. The foil frequency is corrected; card identities and frozen price inputs are unchanged. Tokens, advertising cards, basic lands from other sets and prerelease promos are not added to this product. Draw all 540 physical game cards before Sift and user filters; a rejected card is never rerolled or replaced.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value estimates with complete product contents and disclosed historical allocation assumptions.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Fifth Dawn Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Fifth Dawn Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10.842857 expected / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10.842857 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.957143 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.042857 expected / pack (4.2857% expected per pack).
Rare / Mythic0.985714 expected / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 0.985714 expected / pack (98.5714% expected per pack).
Foil replacement common slots0.157143 expected / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.157143 expected / pack (15.7143% expected per pack).
Foil replacement rare slot0.014286 expected / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare slot: 0.014286 expected / pack (1.4286% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Fifth Dawn Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 330 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 110 Common, 110 Rare, 110 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 55 old common, 55 old common foil, 55 old rare, 55 old rare foil, 55 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Abuna's Chant #1 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Advanced Hoverguard #22 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Anodet Lurker #101 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Armed Response #2 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Baton of Courage #105 (7.10 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Acquire #21, All Suns' Dawn #81, Arachnoid #102, Arcbound Wanderer #103, Battered Golem #106, Blind Creeper #42, Auriok Champion #3, Auriok Salvagers #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 330 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Krark-Clan Ironworks #134 ($33.68), Grinding Station #127 ($33.50), Mycosynth Golem #137 ($31.92), Paradise Mantle #142 ($23.34), Doubling Cube #116 ($21.71). Together those five rows account for 24.7% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00