Fourth Edition Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Fourth Edition Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unavailable because exact Fourth Edition Market quotes are missing for Crusade and Pradesh Gypsies. Their values are unknown, not zero. Displayed values and simulated ranges are priced subtotals. This model uses the pinned MTGJSON historical sheet manifest: 36 packs of 15 cards, each with eleven common, three uncommon, and one rare draw from three 121-card sheets. Each identity has one equal sheet weight. Independent draws with replacement are an explicit modeling assumption; factory pack ordering is not reconstructed. Basic lands, foils, and non-game inserts are outside these booster sheets. Draw all 540 physical cards before Sift and user filters, with no rerolls or replacements. Crusade retains 1/121 per pack (36/121 per box), and Pradesh Gypsies retains 1/11 per pack (36/11 per box), regardless of their unavailable prices. Their probability is never redistributed to priced cards.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box Priced Subtotals

Values and simulated ranges cover priced cards only. Full-product EV is unavailable while Crusade and Pradesh Gypsies lack supported quotes.

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Fourth Edition Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Fourth Edition Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Uncommon sheet slots3 cards / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 3 expected / pack.
Common sheet slots11 cards / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 11 expected / pack.
Rare sheet slots1 card / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Rare sheet slots: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Fourth Edition Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 363 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 7, 2026 contains 121 Common, 121 Rare, 121 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 121 old common, 121 old rare, 121 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Alabaster Potion (3.27 expected per draft booster box), Amrou Kithkin #252 (3.27 expected per draft booster box), Amulet of Kroog (3.27 expected per draft booster box), Apprentice Wizard (3.27 expected per draft booster box), Battering Ram (3.27 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abomination, Aladdin's Lamp, Benalish Hero, Animate Dead #2, Dark Ritual #13, Deathgrip #14, Drain Life #16, El-Hajjaj #18. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 361 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Mana Vault #352 ($28.68), Dark Ritual #13 ($19.73), Strip Mine #189 ($15.35), Red Elemental Blast ($11.88), Lightning Bolt #226 ($10.34). Together those five rows account for 27.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00