Double Masters 2022 Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Double Masters 2022 Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unavailable. The remaining 98.75% of each traditional foil slot lacks a published rarity distribution. The published 11% chance of at least one nonfoil borderless rare/mythic does not specify the possible two-card branch. Numbers shown are provisional priced subtotals under the retained one-card lower-bound treatment estimate, not a complete product valuation. Full-product P/E, profit and ROI are unavailable. Each display draws 24 packs of 16 game cards before Sift or user filters, without backfilling rejected cards; tokens are excluded. Every pack has eight commons, three uncommons, two nonfoil rare/mythics, two traditional foils and one Cryptic Spires. Each foil position includes the published 1.25% traditional foil borderless rare/mythic bucket, allocated uniformly across its 50 eligible printings (an assumption); the other 98.75% remains unpriced. Matching nonfoil common/uncommon identities receive borderless treatment one third of the time; the identical published foil treatment rule cannot resolve the unknown foil rarity weights. Nonfoil rare/mythic positions retain the 7:1 aggregate rarity assumption, uniform within rarity. Independent slot and pack draws are assumptions; factory duplicate prevention and the two-nonfoil-borderless joint probability are unresolved. Foil-etched and textured foils are Collector-only and are absent here.
24 packs / box16 game cards / pack384 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Full-product EV is unavailable.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Provisional Priced Subtotal

Provisional priced subtotal estimates; full-product EV is unavailable.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 24 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Double Masters 2022 Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
24 packs / box
Cards
16 game cards / pack
Modeled total
384 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Double Masters 2022 Draft Booster is modeled with 16 game-card slots.

Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.3 uncommons with eligible borderless identity replacement regular-frame share: 2.7375 expected / pack.3 uncommons with eligible borderless identity replacement alternate-treatment share: 0.2625 expected / pack (26.25% expected per pack).
Regular rare or mythic rare slots after conservative borderless replacement1.89 expected / pack
Pool: 160 modeled card outcomes.Regular rare or mythic rare slots after conservative borderless replacement: 1.89 expected / pack.
8 commons with eligible borderless identity replacement regular-frame share7.7363 expected / pack
Pool: 91 modeled card outcomes.8 commons with eligible borderless identity replacement regular-frame share: 7.7363 expected / pack.
Cryptic Spires1 card / pack
Pool: 1 modeled card outcome.Cryptic Spires: 1 expected / pack.
2 traditional foil cards2 cards / pack
Pool: 50 priced borderless rare/mythic printings plus unresolved remaining outcomes.Each foil position is 1.25% borderless rare/mythic; remaining 98.75% unpriced.
Conservative nonfoil borderless rare or mythic rare replacement0.11 expected / pack
Pool: 50 modeled card outcomes.Conservative nonfoil borderless rare or mythic rare replacement: 0.11 expected / pack (11% expected per pack).
8 commons with eligible borderless identity replacement alternate-treatment share0.2637 expected / pack
Pool: 9 modeled card outcomes.8 commons with eligible borderless identity replacement alternate-treatment share: 0.2637 expected / pack (26.37% expected per pack).

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Double Masters 2022 Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 384 card positions across 463 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 180 Rare, 101 Uncommon, 100 Common, 80 Mythic Rare, 1 Basic Land, 1 Unresolved. Its largest slot groups are 160 rare mythic, 91 common, 80 uncommon, 50 borderless rare mythic, 50 foil borderless rm. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Unpriced remaining traditional foil outcomes (Unresolved printing) #unresolved-foil (47.4 expected per draft booster box), Cryptic Spires (Cryptic Spires) #332 (24.0 expected per draft booster box), Advanced Stitchwing #36 (2.11 expected per draft booster box), Aethersnipe #37 (2.11 expected per draft booster box), Agony Warp #168 (2.11 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abbot of Keral Keep #100, Abzan Charm #166, Aether Vial (Borderless (Foil)) #391, Aether Vial (Borderless) #391, Ainok Bond-Kin #5, Azorius Chancery (Borderless) #400, Burning-Tree Emissary (Borderless) #374, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 462 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Imperial Seal #79 ($22.87), Smothering Tithe #31 ($19.19), Phyrexian Altar #311 ($18.32), Force of Negation #50 ($17.31), Mana Vault #308 ($16.98). Together those five rows account for 19.7% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00