10th Edition Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of 10th Edition Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

0.985714 Normal nonfoil basic sheet slots, 9.857142 Normal nonfoil common sheet slots, 2.957142 Normal nonfoil uncommon sheet slots, 0.985714 Normal nonfoil rare sheet slots, 0.142857 Normal foil common sheet slots, 0.042857 Normal foil uncommon sheet slots, 0.014285 Normal foil rare sheet slots, and 0.014285 Normal foil basic sheet slots per pack using the committed tcgcsv-sync/magic-old-draft-sheets.json manifest. Sheet weights are applied before Sift/filtering; any source-only placeholder rows price at zero so matched cards are not overweighted.
Full EV is not verified. The current price snapshot lacks Hypnotic Specter in foil. The figures below are a quoted-card subtotal using historical sheet assumptions, not a complete product valuation. The saved model assumes one foil per 70 cards on average with independent replacement by rarity; the historical insertion rate and replacement pattern still need primary-source confirmation. Missing prices are not known zero values.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Conditional Pack & Box Values

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack subtotal (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box subtotal x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

10th Edition Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each 10th Edition Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Foil uncommon sheet slots0.0429 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon sheet slots: 0.0429 expected / pack (4.29% expected per pack).
Uncommon sheet slots2.9571 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 2.9571 expected / pack.
Foil common sheet slots0.1429 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Foil common sheet slots: 0.1429 expected / pack (14.29% expected per pack).
Common sheet slots9.8571 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 9.8571 expected / pack.
Foil rare sheet slots0.0143 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Foil rare sheet slots: 0.0143 expected / pack (1.43% expected per pack).
Rare sheet slots0.9857 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Rare sheet slots: 0.9857 expected / pack (98.57% expected per pack).
Foil basic sheet slots0.0143 expected / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Foil basic sheet slots: 0.0143 expected / pack (1.43% expected per pack).
Basic sheet slots0.9857 expected / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic sheet slots: 0.9857 expected / pack (98.57% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives 10th Edition Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 766 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 11, 2026 contains 242 Common, 242 Rare, 242 Uncommon, 40 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 121 old common, 121 old foil common, 121 old foil rare, 121 old foil uncommon, 121 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Afflict #125 (2.93 expected per draft booster box), Aggressive Urge #250 (2.93 expected per draft booster box), Anaba Bodyguard #187 (2.93 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Blessing #3 (2.93 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Wall #5 (2.93 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abundance #249, Academy Researchers #63, Adarkar Wastes #347, Agonizing Memories #126, Assassinate #128, Aven Cloudchaser #7, Forest (380), Forest (381), Ancestor's Chosen #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 765 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Doubling Cube #321 ($9.91), Grave Pact #144 ($9.48), Crucible of Worlds #319 ($8.94), Skyshroud Ranger #297 ($6.72), Elvish Champion #261 ($6.51). Together those five rows account for 14.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00