Tarkir: Dragonstorm Collector Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Tarkir: Dragonstorm Collector Booster Display using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend collector-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

TDM Collector Booster cards use TDM 1-276 and 287-418, TDC 1-10 and 51-90, and SPG 104-118. Each pack also draws one count-only traditional foil double-sided token position, excluded from resale scoring. Art-series and promo cards are outside this product; serialized 419 is removed before eligible slot normalization.

12 packs / box 16 physical positions / pack Backend Collector Booster model

Language-specific price coverage. Ghostfire and Halo foil Ghostfire use separate English and Japanese Near Mint foil quotes. TCGplayer Market uses the same printing’s Low when Market is missing. A missing or stale language quote keeps full-product EV unavailable; the priced subtotal includes only covered outcomes.

Snapshot TCG Market + $0.25 Sift Based on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

TDM Collector Booster cards use TDM 1-276 and 287-418, TDC 1-10 and 51-90, and SPG 104-118.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model buckets Choose which backend model buckets count toward EV. Backend model

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 12 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level expected value and profit across low, mid, and high estimates.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Collector Booster Content Snapshot

Each pack draws fifteen game cards and one token position before included-bucket toggles and Sift score the completed contents.

Packs: 12 / box
Cards: 15 game + 1 token / pack
Box total: 192 physical positions
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

The game-card slots below have an additional count-only foil double-sided token position, for sixteen physical positions per pack.

Traditional foil commons4 cards

Main-set foil common outcomes.

Traditional foil uncommons3 cards

Main-set foil uncommon outcomes.

Draconic-frame common or uncommon2 cards

Collector Booster draconic treatment slots.

Booster Fun basic land1 card

The modeled showcase basic-land slot.

Traditional foil rare or mythic1 card

Default-frame TDM rare or mythic outcomes.

Tarkir: Dragonstorm Commander1 card

An eligible TDC card from the documented collector slot.

Nonfoil Booster Fun rare or mythic2 cards

Eligible showcase and borderless TDM treatments.

Foil Booster Fun or premium1 card

Foil showcase, borderless, or eligible Special Guest outcomes.

Serialized Mox Jasper is removed before drawing under the serialized-card exclusion policy; eligible nonserialized outcomes fill the slot. The physically drawn token is excluded from resale scoring.

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Modeled card rows with current value, seller fees, and expected copies per product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 192 physical positions / display							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/tdm/models/collector-box.json. The model documents draw order as drawing the sealed product contents first, then applying Sift or filtering logic afterward.