Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Display EV Calculator

Review the conditional estimate of Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Display using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend collector-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is not verified. Ten main-set puzzle cards have two publisher-confirmed artworks, but this inherited model prices each same-number pair through one marketplace printing. The exact artwork allocation and price-equivalence basis are unresolved. Displayed numbers are conditional estimates; the verified Commander-slot correction does not resolve that separate printing gap.

12 packs / box 15 game cards / pack 180 modeled card slots / box Backend Collector Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box Conditional Estimates

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 12 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level expected value and profit across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 12 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 180 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Foil Commons4 cards / pack

Pool: 81 modeled card outcomes.4 foil commons: 4 expected / pack.

Foil Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 100 modeled card outcomes.3 foil uncommons: 3 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 5 modeled card outcomes.Foil full-art impossible basic land: 1 expected / pack.

Foil Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 90 modeled card outcomes.Foil rare or mythic: 1 expected / pack.

Nonfoil Booster Fun1 card / pack

Pool: 59 modeled card outcomes.Nonfoil Booster Fun rare / mythic: 1 expected / pack.

Foil Booster Fun1 card / pack

Pool: 116 modeled card outcomes.Foil Booster Fun or premium card: 1 expected / pack.

Nonfoil Showcase1 card / pack

Pool: 31 modeled card outcomes.Nonfoil showcase common/uncommon: 1 expected / pack.

Foil Showcase1 card / pack

Pool: 31 modeled card outcomes.Traditional foil showcase common/uncommon: 1 expected / pack.

Nonfoil Extended Art2 cards / pack

Pool: 89 modeled card outcomes.Commander extended-art rare / mythic: 1 expected / pack.Nonfoil extended-art rare / mythic: 1 expected / pack.

Future EV calculations should draw all 15 game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Foil double-sided token: The non-playable token slot is excluded from EV. Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

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Collector Booster model rows with current value, seller fees, and expected boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 180 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/mkm/models/collector-box.json. The model documents draw order as drawing the sealed product contents first, then applying Sift or filtering logic afterward.