Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster Display using live TCGplayer market prices and the backend collector-box model.

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

12 packs / box 15 game cards / pack 180 modeled card slots / box Backend Collector Booster model

MH3 Collector Boosters use MH3, M3C collector-eligible rows, H2R retro rows from TCGCSV MH1/MH2 filtered product IDs, and SPG 39-53 playable rows. Token, art, ripple-foil deck, thick display commander, and serialized rows are excluded from the model.

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Content Snapshot

Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 12 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 180 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Foil Commons4 cards / pack

Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.4 foil commons: 4 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 5 modeled card outcomes.Foil full-art Eldrazi land: 1 expected / pack.

Commander booster-fun card1 card / pack

Pool: 90 modeled card outcomes.Commander booster-fun card: 1 expected / pack.

Foil retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes1 card / pack

Pool: 32 modeled card outcomes.Foil retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes: 1 expected / pack.

Retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes1 card / pack

Pool: 32 modeled card outcomes.Retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes: 1 expected / pack.

Foil alternate-border / premium card remainder0.786 expected / pack

Pool: 133 modeled card outcomes.Foil alternate-border / premium card remainder: 0.786 expected / pack (78.6% expected per pack).

2 nonfoil alternate-border rare/mythic cards2 cards / pack

Pool: 133 modeled card outcomes.2 nonfoil alternate-border rare/mythic cards: 2 expected / pack.

Foil uncommon single-faced share2 cards / pack

Pool: 81 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon single-faced share: 2 expected / pack.

Foil rare / mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 102 modeled card outcomes.Foil rare / mythic: 1 expected / pack.

Foil uncommon DFC share0.5 expected / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon DFC share: 0.5 expected / pack (50% expected per pack).

Foil new-to-Modern uncommon share0.5 expected / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Foil new-to-Modern uncommon share: 0.5 expected / pack (50% expected per pack).

Foil premium special treatments0.214 expected / pack

Pool: 42 modeled card outcomes.Foil premium special treatments: 0.214 expected / pack (21.4% expected per pack).

Future EV calculations should draw all 15 game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Token: The traditional foil double-sided token slot is excluded from EV. Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from generated snapshots when available, with TCGCSV price groups as a live fallback. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 12 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level expected value and profit across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: As an eBay Partner Network affiliate, The Expected Value may earn from qualifying purchases. Some marketplace links are affiliate links.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Collector Booster model rows with current value, seller fees, and expected boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 180 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/mh3/models/collector-box.json. The model documents draw order as drawing the sealed product contents first, then applying Sift or filtering logic afterward.