Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster Display using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend collector-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

MH3 Collector Boosters use MH3, M3C collector-eligible rows, H2R retro rows from TCGCSV MH1/MH2 filtered product IDs, and SPG 39-53 playable rows. Token, art, ripple-foil deck, thick display commander, and serialized rows are excluded from the model.
12 packs / box 15 game cards / pack 180 modeled card slots / box Backend Collector Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

MH3 Collector Boosters use MH3, M3C collector-eligible rows, H2R retro rows from TCGCSV MH1/MH2 filtered product IDs, and SPG 39-53 playable rows.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 12 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level expected value and profit across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster Content Snapshot

Exactly 180 eligible game cards are drawn before included-pool controls and Sift score them. Serialized cards are excluded and remaining final-slot outcomes normalized before the draw.

Packs
12 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
180 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Foil Commons4 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.4 foil commons: 4 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 5 modeled card outcomes.Foil full-art Eldrazi land: 1 expected / pack.
Commander booster-fun card1 card / pack
Pool: 90 modeled card outcomes.Commander booster-fun card: 1 expected / pack.
Foil retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes1 card / pack
Pool: 32 modeled card outcomes.Foil retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes: 1 expected / pack.
Retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes1 card / pack
Pool: 32 modeled card outcomes.Retro common/uncommon or Snow-Covered Wastes: 1 expected / pack.
Foil alternate-border / premium card remainder0.786 expected / pack
Pool: 133 modeled card outcomes.Foil alternate-border / premium card remainder: 0.786 expected / pack (78.6% expected per pack).
2 nonfoil alternate-border rare/mythic cards2 cards / pack
Pool: 133 modeled card outcomes.2 nonfoil alternate-border rare/mythic cards: 2 expected / pack.
Foil uncommon single-faced share2 cards / pack
Pool: 81 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon single-faced share: 2 expected / pack.
Foil rare / mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 102 modeled card outcomes.Foil rare / mythic: 1 expected / pack.
Foil uncommon DFC share0.5 expected / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon DFC share: 0.5 expected / pack (50% expected per pack).
Foil new-to-Modern uncommon share0.5 expected / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Foil new-to-Modern uncommon share: 0.5 expected / pack (50% expected per pack).
Foil premium special treatments0.214 expected / pack
Pool: 42 modeled card outcomes.Foil premium special treatments: 0.214 expected / pack (21.4% expected per pack).

Future EV calculations should draw all 15 game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Token: The traditional foil double-sided token slot is excluded from EV. Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Showing all cards
Collector Booster model rows with current value, seller fees, and expected boxes per copy.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00