The Hobbit Collector Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of The Hobbit Collector Booster Display from the generated collector-box model and HOB daily price snapshots.

Model assumptions & evidence

The baseline excludes the approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug. The foil Booster Fun slot is normalized across non-chase outcomes before box contents are drawn; ordinary pool toggles and optional Sift filtering apply only after the draw.

Published Collector Booster percentages are normalized within each slot. The one-in-ten surge foil uncommon upgrade is modeled as 0.1 card per Collector Booster.

Chase exclusion: The approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug is absent from card prices, simulations, stored EV, sealed P/E, and Market Ping. The non-chase foil Booster Fun outcomes are normalized to fill that slot. A chase-inclusive dollar sensitivity is not claimed because Wizards gives no Collector Booster print-run denominator and the supported price snapshot has no Smaug price.

Model provenance (reviewed August 26, 2026): Contents, treatments, and the box topper follow Wizards' Collecting The Hobbit article (July 18, 2026). Model version: data-static/magic/hob/models/collector-box.json, generated July 31, 2026. The residual formula above is the reproducible best-estimate rule used wherever Wizards supplies only less-than-1% labels.

Best-estimate probability note: Published exact percentages are applied first. For each slot where Wizards names multiple nonempty outcomes only as less than 1%, the calculator subtracts the published exact weights from 100% and divides that residual equally among the named less-than-1% pools; rounded choices are then normalized within the slot.

Prerelease / provisional EV: The Hobbit Collector Booster Display releases on August 14, 2026. Singles and sealed prices are still forming and may move quickly before release.

12 packs / box15 game cards / pack181 modeled game cards / boxGenerated HOB Collector Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

The baseline excludes the approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from data-prices/magic/hob/card-prices.json.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model poolsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading generated model pools...

Gleaming Gold Smaug is absent from the model entirely. Other disabled pools and Sift are applied after box contents are drawn and do not backfill.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-pool filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Per-booster share with topper (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Display EV including topper (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit after selected fees and costs.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

The Hobbit Collector Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 12 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 181 modeled game cards / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each The Hobbit Collector Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Foil Commons5 cards / pack

Pool: 67 modeled card outcomes.Foil commons: 5 expected / pack.

Foil Uncommons4 cards / pack

Pool: 71 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommons: 4 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 5 modeled card outcomes.Foil journey basic land: 1 expected / pack.

Foil Wildcard2 cards / pack

Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Foil main-set rare / mythic: 2 expected / pack.

Nonfoil Booster Fun2 cards / pack

Pool: 132 modeled card outcomes.Nonfoil Booster Fun: 2 expected / pack.

Foil Booster Fun1 card / pack

Pool: 140 modeled card outcomes.Foil Booster Fun: 1 expected / pack.

Box Topper1 / display

Pool: 40 modeled card outcomes.Traditional foil Middle-earth classic artist box topper: 0.0833 expected / pack (8.33% expected per pack).

All 12 Collector Boosters and the box topper are drawn first; Sift or filtering is applied only after the complete draw.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

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Modeled Collector Booster box card rows, prices, fees, and expected boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value	Seller fees	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included pools & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 181 modeled game cards / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals

Model source: data-static/magic/hob/models/collector-box.json. Gleaming Gold Smaug is excluded from the model; Sift and optional pool filters apply after the complete box is drawn.