The Hobbit Prerelease Pack EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value of The Hobbit Prerelease Pack from the generated prerelease-pack model and HOB daily price snapshots.

Model assumptions & evidence

The browser simulator draws the full bundle contents first, then applies disabled pools and Sift filtering afterward. Disabled pools do not backfill into other rows.

For Play Booster branches Wizards labels only as less than 1%, the model applies all exact published percentages first and divides the remaining slot probability evenly among the named nonempty less-than-1% pools. Published rounded choices are normalized within their slot.
Chase exclusion: The approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug is absent from card prices, simulations, stored EV, sealed P/E, and Market Ping. The non-chase foil Booster Fun outcomes are normalized to fill that slot. A chase-inclusive dollar sensitivity is not claimed because Wizards gives no Collector Booster print-run denominator and the supported price snapshot has no Smaug price.
Prerelease promo estimate: The promo is modeled using unstamped main-set foil rare/mythic printings, with uniform cards within an assumed 87.6% rare / 12.4% mythic split. These are modeling assumptions, not a confirmed promo checklist or promo-specific pull rates.
Best-estimate probability note: Published exact percentages are applied first. For each slot where Wizards names multiple nonempty outcomes only as less than 1%, the calculator subtracts the published exact weights from 100% and divides that residual equally among the named less-than-1% pools; rounded choices are then normalized within the slot.
Prerelease / provisional EV: The Hobbit Prerelease Pack releases on August 14, 2026. Singles and sealed prices are still forming and may move quickly before release.
6 Play Boosters / prerelease pack1 each of the 4 nonfoil seasonal Hobbit basic lands1 traditional foil rare or mythic promo89 modeled game cards
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Chase exclusion: The approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug is absent from card prices, simulations, stored EV, sealed P/E, and Market Ping.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Card-level fees use the selected seller model. Free-shipping order costs are added in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from generated HOB card-prices snapshots.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included poolsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Sift tints rows by price. EV uses Sift only when enabled, after the complete bundle has been opened.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Generated sealed product prices compared to the current break-even price per bundle.
SourceProduct priceBreak-even price/bundle (mid)P/EBasis

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Bundle EV

Per-product expected value summary.
MetricLowMidHigh
bundle EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per bundle$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per bundle$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per bundle$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/bundle (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit after selected fees and costs.
All bundlesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Bundles: 0 | Price/bundle: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

The Hobbit Prerelease Pack Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Boosters
6 Play Boosters / prerelease pack
Product detail
1 each of the 4 nonfoil seasonal Hobbit basic lands
Product detail
1 traditional foil rare or mythic promo
Rows
Loading

Product Structure

This The Hobbit Prerelease Pack is modeled from the complete product components listed below.

Play Boosters6 Play Boosters / prerelease pack
Complete modeled contents are drawn before included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied as scoring filters.
Basic Lands1 each of the 4 nonfoil seasonal Hobbit basic lands
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.
Promos1 traditional foil rare or mythic promo
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.
Modeled Contents89 modeled game cards
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.

All 6 Play Boosters, the foil promo, and 4 seasonal lands are drawn first; Sift or filtering is applied only after the complete draw.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives The Hobbit Prerelease Pack

Product profile. This prerelease pack resolves 89 card positions across 568 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 31, 2026 contains 207 Rare, 130 Uncommon, 124 Common, 73 Mythic Rare, 34 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 183 hob, 183 hobf, 68 prerelease f, 25 dragon, 25 dragonf. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Rage into the Valley (Borderless Scene Card) #200 (1.65 expected per prerelease pack), Thorin's Last Stand (Borderless Scene Card) #209 (1.65 expected per prerelease pack), Plains (Seasonal Hobbit Basic Land) #313 (1.00 expected per prerelease pack), Plains (Seasonal Hobbit Basic Land) #314 (1.00 expected per prerelease pack), Plains (Seasonal Hobbit Basic Land) #315 (1.00 expected per prerelease pack). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Along the Crooked Way (Prerelease Promo (Foil)) #60, Along the Crooked Way (Traditional Foil) #60, Along the Crooked Way #60, Azog, Moria's Ruin (Dragon Hoard (Foil)) #222, Azog, Moria's Ruin (Dragon Hoard) #222, Bard, King of Dale (Book Cover (Foil)) #244, Bard, King of Dale (Book Cover) #244, Bard's Company (Borderless Scene Card (Foil)) #210, Long-Bodied Grey Dog (Traditional Foil) #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 11, 2026, 568 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Gleaming Splendor #15 ($2.23), Plains (Seasonal Hobbit Basic Land) #316 ($1.92), Plains (Seasonal Hobbit Basic Land) #313 ($1.90), Plains (Seasonal Hobbit Basic Land) #314 ($1.89), Plains (Seasonal Hobbit Basic Land) #315 ($1.89). Together those five rows account for 15.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled Bundle card rows, prices, fees, and expected products per copy.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValueSeller feesProducts / copy
Total expected cards/bundle after toggles and Sift0.00
Expected / bundle0.00
Preparing...
EV and Monte Carlo draw the full product first, then apply disabled pools and Sift. Disabled pools do not backfill.