The Hobbit Bundle EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value of The Hobbit Bundle from the generated bundle model and HOB daily price snapshots.

Model assumptions & evidence

The browser simulator draws the full bundle contents first, then applies disabled pools and Sift filtering afterward. Disabled pools do not backfill into other rows.

For Play Booster branches Wizards labels only as less than 1%, the model applies all exact published percentages first and divides the remaining slot probability evenly among the named nonempty less-than-1% pools. Published rounded choices are normalized within their slot.
Chase exclusion: The approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug is absent from card prices, simulations, stored EV, sealed P/E, and Market Ping. The non-chase foil Booster Fun outcomes are normalized to fill that slot. A chase-inclusive dollar sensitivity is not claimed because Wizards gives no Collector Booster print-run denominator and the supported price snapshot has no Smaug price.
Fixed foil promo: The Misty Mountains Cold (HOB 321) is included once per Bundle. If its exact printing lacks a generated marketplace quote, it remains explicitly unpriced; another printing's value is never substituted.
Best-estimate probability note: Published exact percentages are applied first. For each slot where Wizards names multiple nonempty outcomes only as less than 1%, the calculator subtracts the published exact weights from 100% and divides that residual equally among the named less-than-1% pools; rounded choices are then normalized within the slot.
Prerelease / provisional EV: The Hobbit Bundle releases on August 14, 2026. Singles and sealed prices are still forming and may move quickly before release.
9 Play Boosters / bundle15 nonfoil + 15 foil basics, including 5 journey lands in each finish1 of each seasonal foil Plains + 1 foil promo161 modeled game cards
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Chase exclusion: The approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug is absent from card prices, simulations, stored EV, sealed P/E, and Market Ping.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Card-level fees use the selected seller model. Free-shipping order costs are added in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from generated HOB card-prices snapshots.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included poolsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Sift tints rows by price. EV uses Sift only when enabled, after the complete bundle has been opened.

Sealed Price / EV

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Generated sealed product prices compared to the current break-even price per bundle.
SourceProduct priceBreak-even price/bundle (mid)P/EBasis

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Bundle EV

Per-product expected value summary.
MetricLowMidHigh
bundle EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per bundle$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per bundle$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per bundle$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/bundle (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit after selected fees and costs.
All bundlesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Bundles: 0 | Price/bundle: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

The Hobbit Bundle Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Boosters
9 Play Boosters / bundle
Product detail
15 nonfoil + 15 foil basics, including 5 journey lands in each finish
Product detail
4 seasonal foil Plains + 1 foil promo
Rows
Loading

Product Structure

This The Hobbit Bundle is modeled from the complete product components listed below.

Play Boosters9 Play Boosters / bundle
Complete modeled contents are drawn before included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied as scoring filters.
Basic Lands15 nonfoil + 15 foil basics, including 5 journey lands in each finish
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.
Promos4 seasonal foil Plains + 1 foil promo
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.
Modeled Contents161 modeled game cards
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.

All 9 Play Boosters and fixed cards are drawn first; Sift or filtering is applied only after the complete draw.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives The Hobbit Bundle

Product profile. This bundle resolves 161 card positions across 521 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 7, 2026 contains 155 Rare, 130 Uncommon, 124 Common, 58 Mythic Rare, 54 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 183 hob, 183 hobf, 25 dragon, 25 dragonf, 15 scene. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Rage into the Valley (Borderless) #200 (2.47 expected per bundle), Thorin's Last Stand (Borderless) #209 (2.47 expected per bundle), Forest (0193) (Basic Land) (2.00 expected per bundle), Forest (0193) (Basic Land) (2.00 expected per bundle), Island (0190) (Basic Land) (2.00 expected per bundle). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Along the Crooked Way #60, An Unexpected Party #29, Azog, Moria's Ruin (Showcase) #222, Bard, King of Dale (Borderless) #244, Bard's Company (Borderless) #210, Belladonna Took (Showcase) #214, Bolg's Company (Borderless) #211, Elvenking's Halls #182, Long-Bodied Grey Dog #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 11, 2026, 520 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Plains (0314) (Basic Land) ($11.82), Plains (0313) (Basic Land) ($9.89), Plains (0315) (Basic Land) ($9.89), Plains (0316) (Basic Land) ($9.89), Gleaming Splendor #15 ($3.34). Together those five rows account for 33.5% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled Bundle card rows, prices, fees, and expected products per copy.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValueSeller feesProducts / copy
Total expected cards/bundle after toggles and Sift0.00
Expected / bundle0.00
Preparing...
EV and Monte Carlo draw the full product first, then apply disabled pools and Sift. Disabled pools do not backfill.