Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle EV Calculator
Estimate the opened-card value of Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle, compare sealed prices, and apply your selling fees and Sift threshold.
Model assumptions & evidence
This product has six Play Boosters, two Collector Boosters, two uniformly selected foil promos from ten, and twenty foil tower lands. Promo draws are modeled independently with possible repeats because duplicate policy is unconfirmed; no rarity weights apply. Four tower lands per type are split 2, 1, 1 in collector-number order as a modeling assumption.
Complete contents, including correlated echoed pairs, are drawn before Sift or pool filters score them. Filtered cards are never rerolled or backfilled.
Collector baseline: Serialized Bloodline Recollector and unknown-rate facet foil shattered mirror outcomes are excluded before drawing. Eligible non-chase outcomes fill the same slot after normalization; the physical card count stays complete. Japan Showcase traditional foil (9%) and fracture foil (1%) are included.
Collector baseline: Serialized Bloodline Recollector and unknown-rate facet foil shattered mirror outcomes are excluded before drawing.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Included poolsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Sealed Price / EV
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| Source | Product price | Break-even price/secret lair bundle (mid) | P/E | Basis |
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Simulation Results (after Sift)
Secret Lair Bundle EV
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| Net after fees per secret lair bundle | — | — | — |
| Profit after fees per secret lair bundle | — | — | — |
| Break-even price/secret lair bundle (mid) | — | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All secret lair bundles | Low | Mid | High |
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| Profit after expenses | — | — | — |
| ROI vs cost | - | - | - |
Content Snapshot
Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle Contents
This product has six Play Boosters, two Collector Boosters, two uniformly selected foil promos from ten, and twenty foil tower lands. Promo draws are modeled independently with possible repeats because duplicate policy is unconfirmed; no rarity weights apply. Four tower lands per type are split 2, 1, 1 in collector-number order as a modeling assumption.
- Game cards
- 136
- Rows
- Loading
Product Structure
All 136 game-card positions belong to the complete product before Sift or pool filtering. Tokens, art cards, packaging, and accessories are not valued as singles.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle
Product profile. This secret lair bundle resolves 136 card positions across 888 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 23, 2026 contains 265 Rare, 248 Uncommon, 156 Common, 148 Mythic Rare, 71 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 71 fra common foil, 71 fra common nonfoil, 66 fra echoU foil, 66 fra echoU nonfoil, 50 fra rare foil. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Forest (Tower Basic Land) #394 (2.00 expected per secret lair bundle), Island (Tower Basic Land) #385 (2.00 expected per secret lair bundle), Mountain (Tower Basic Land) #391 (2.00 expected per secret lair bundle), Plains (Tower Basic Land) #382 (2.00 expected per secret lair bundle), Swamp (Tower Basic Land) #388 (2.00 expected per secret lair bundle). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Academic Ascent #2, Aerid Konstrari (Japan Showcase Fracture Foil) #417, Aerid Konstrari (Japan Showcase) #407, Aerid Konstrari (Sculptor's Stronghold) #347, Aerid Konstrari #121, Afterthought Sentry #166, Ajani Resolute (Borderless Echoed Pairs) #291, Ajani Resolute #195, Emrakul, the Exigent Doom #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated September 23, 2026, 841 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Seasoned Cryomancer (Secret Lair Promo) #441 ($50.00), Darklight Phoenix (Secret Lair Promo) #444 ($39.80), Omnipresence (Secret Lair Promo) #448 ($39.80), Plains (Tower Basic Land) #382 ($6.00), Island (Tower Basic Land) #385 ($6.00). Together those five rows account for 21.7% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total expected cards/secret lair bundle after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||